Monday, January 4, 2021
Is Pakistan’s N-CPEC+ vision finally beginning to take shape?
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Dissecting the actions of PTI’s online brigade
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How to ensure teacher professional development in Pakistan
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Wednesday, December 30, 2020
How to ensure teacher professional development in Pakistan
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Wednesday, December 23, 2020
The Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline raises Russia’s stakes in South Asia
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Why did PDM’s Lahore jalsa not live up to expectations?
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Why the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn is important in Islamic history
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Friday, December 11, 2020
The bourgeois has left!
At some point young people decided that holding on to a vague sort of feminist/socialist position on social media in lieu of having a conscience (or a personality) was a nice strategy to go about living their otherwise bourgeois super-privileged lives. The fact that these progressive ideas are adhered to only loosely in real life becomes abundantly clear when you consider how these ideas always ever remain theoretical (and fragmentary to boot) and never quite enter the world of practical reality.
A Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) supporter, say what you will, puts his money where his mouth is. Or, if you wish to be shamed by a more progressive example: Manzoor Pashteen’s supporters are equally ready to confront reality head on in order to change it, putting even life on the line to do so.
The bourgeois leftist lobby is extremely vocal online, but it can collectively be described only as noise, at best. They have their moments in the spotlight when even they will take to the streets, but those are singular annual events or follow the wake of a particularly noteworthy tragedy.
Rape is a daily occurrence in our country. And it is ignored just as readily by a bourgeois feminist as anybody else. The only instance in recent memory when it was taken up as a cause was when somebody from their own social class became a victim during the recent, terrible motorway incident. Upperclass feminists rolled out in droves when they saw one of their own harmed, and that too only when they recognised that now the threat had become immediate. So long as it keeps happening to working class or lower income class women, you won’t hear a peep from our social justice brigade, much less a protest. In any case, the passion, the rage, the revolutionary fervour lasted five days. And then, nothing. Progressively labelled instagram accounts are now selling merchandise though! Place your orders for your very own feminist hoodie!
But when these so-called progressives do show up to decry any awful event, their slogans mean nothing to the masses and ring hollow even among sympathetic ears. And this takes us back to the idea that there’s something inherently flawed with relying on elitist bourgeois women and men (really the white people of Pakistan) for an education in progressive politics.
They offer you catch phrases, slogans, quotable quotes, shareable cliches, and labels. Labels that you can toss around to categorise and compartmentalise, censor and condemn. Overused words like ‘problematic’, ‘mansplaining’, and phrases like ‘emotional labour’, ‘internalised misogyny’ and the holy grail of pseudo analysis, the singular all consuming signifier: Patriarchy. Anything and everything even slightly disconcerting is, and always must have been, Patriarchy. Anything and everything with the slightest hint at being wholesome and life affirming is attributed to a vague feminine power with associated laudatory phrases. Essentialising women as some sort of fairy godmothers is ahistorical and frankly stupid.
Why? Because a binary of women versus men is created in pretty much the same way all populist leaders tend to point to a particular group of really very varied individuals who may or may not have anything to do with the problem at hand and scream: enemy!
For Trump the enemy was the ubiquitous Immigrant. For Modi it was the Muslim. In Pakistan the enemy is the non-Muslim, or even the Muslim when it’s the Shia or the Ahmedi, or the Pashtoon or the Baloch, OK so really everybody. But for the desi feminist, it is this vague, nebulous constant called Men, ignoring completely the undeniable reality that this category is just as meaningless as any other. Or, when they’re trying really hard to seem nuanced: Patriarchy. But in practice it always comes down to the same.
And this is all done to amass a wealth of online followers, retweets, reposts, and thus gain the illusion of being relevant in an increasingly alienating noisy social media oriented lifestyle. In all these cases, the problem can never be solved. Instead, these linguistic categories are used to create the illusion of control and order. You have something vague to go on and on about to psychologically satisfy yourself. It is at best cathartic. Class takes a backseat to gender. And once that happens, then it’s a toss up between gender, orientation, cis-trans and as many categories of Who Wants to be the Biggest Victim.
These phrases and labels such as they are, must have meant something at some point, but are now used exclusively to shut down conversation, to stem debate and to censor those who do not agree with anything and everything you say.
This can be seen when questions are raised by those who are avowedly sympathetic to the feminist objective. Coming from a man, criticism is to be ignored, primarily because a man does not possess the correct set of genitals and outward appearance to claim experiential knowledge. This line of reasoning has its merits and demerits. But things take on an absurd colour when women who do possess the necessary accoutrement and experience are labelled as suffering from “internalised misogyny” when their critique begins to target feminist discourse, such as it is, online. What a convenient way to shut down opposition and critique. If it harms any cause it harms the progressive and liberal cause. Conservatives never really bought into your nonsense in the first place. They’re immune.
And frankly, there’s very little difference in tendency between what the overuse of these words and phrases achieves and what TLP’s followers wish to achieve every time they use the word Toheen, or Namoos in a phrase meant to disarm and discredit. Just as when the state labels somebody as a foreign agent or a yahoodi sympathiser.
TLP silences people with the threat of death. Liberals silence people with the threat of being cancelled online. The severity of the latter compared to the former may seem ridiculous, perhaps no more than say virtual bullying, but seeing as how so much of bourgeois life (from social to academic to business) is spent online, this can have dire consequences.
Consider the aunty who teaches at an elite Lahori university and will often be the first to tweet when there’s a point to be scored on the socialist-feminist front, but maintains a deathly silence when her parent institution raises its students’ fee by a staggering 40% during Lockdown 1.0 and she continues maintaining her vow of silence when the institution starts firing low income employees during the same period! Her silence is paid for.
If Pakistan’s leftists are bourgeois to the max, which they undoubtedly are, Lahore has produced some of the worst most hypocritical, and frankly, most liberal of the lot. The way these soundbites and slogans are used to fire the imagination of young people, especially students, only to use their strength of numbers to establish the reputation of the purveyor of these soundbites and slogans as a cult leader is frankly damning evidence that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Not only are you creating a large mass of semi literate cultists, you’re pretty much following the model of the extreme right wing conservative. The only difference is in language and vocabulary.
Only the most destitute and decadent of minds would try to fix your use of language while the world starves or lies helpless without shelter, unable to breathe air that has achieved a state far beyond all acceptable levels of toxicity. This is another hallmark of the liberalised left: Their focus is on inserting asterisks in the word rape. To achieve what?! To signal how sensitive they are to our feelings. What a way to infantilise everybody who has a functioning brain. Just say the word you mean, you clown!
The truth is, the enemy is not the Mexican, the Muslim (or the various sects thereof), the enemy is not the fact that you said a naughty word, nor the neighbour across the border. The enemy is the capitalist mode of production. Whether you’re white, brown, black, gay, trans, or frankly a cow in a factory farm, you are all one, united in the fight against Capital. And you have less than seven years left to figure this out or the world will end.
But, all we have are these self-promoting cult leaders and influencers drowning out reason and debate. What worries me is not that these people are fame-whores. What worries me is that they’re willing to squander a position of influence that could have been better served to move the discussion back to the critique of Capital.
The liberation of woman is impossible, without the liberation of humankind. It’s not going to happen. The fact that some of the most vile MNC’s on earth project an outwardly feminist, queer, trans friendly face should be sufficient evidence that this is so.
from Sports News & Discussions and Performances | The Express Tribune https://ift.tt/2LpAuFT
Why PDM’s resignation gamble could backfire
Political temperatures are high, and with the opposition parties’ anticipated announcement of resignations from the National Assembly, one can safely assume that there will be no respite. Following the fundamentals of politics, the opposition, under the banner of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), is desperately endeavouring to gain traction by promising their supporters a swift victory which is not yet in sight, and for which a coordinated and calculated political struggle is essential.
However, it is apparent from the PDM press conference held on December 8th that the president of the PDM, Maulana Fazalur Rehman, has succeeded in convincing key opposition parties to tender their resignations from the National Assembly. As per the announcements made in the aforementioned press conference, opposition members, whose parties are a member of the PDM alliance, shall submit their resignations to their respective party leaders by December 31, 2020.
It is imperative to note that under Article 64 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a member may “by writing under his hand addressed to the Speaker… resign his seat, and thereupon his seat shall become vacant”.
At this juncture, two questions arise: (1) what will be the impact on PDM if a number of its members refuse to tender their resignations (2) what benefit could PDM potentially achieve if all the concerned opposition members follow suit and resign? The first question is that of a political nature, whereas the latter requires legal analysis.
It would not be wrong to assume that PDM will receive a devastating blow if around 20-30% of its members fail to submit their resignations. Not only will their narrative suffer but the pressure they are desperately attempting to mount on the incumbent government, with some degree of success, would also lose force. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government will instantly claim a moral victory, and its army of spokespersons, with the help of a very effective media cell, would mount a vicious attack against the opposition, without the fear of any repercussions. The likelihood of events being played out in a manner is entirely possible considering what happened during the no-confidence motion brought against the Chairman of the Senate of Pakistan recently.
If what has been narrated above does happen, the political uncertainty and upheaval that would follow must be understood and appreciated by the concerned quarters. PDM would be left with no other alternative but to commence a nationwide agitation movement in order to save face. All the red lines will be crossed by PDM’s leaders and no institution could possibly be expected to escape unscathed. As the Vice President of PML-N, Maryam Nawaz, has indicated, members who failed to tender their resignation could possibly expect their houses surrounded by angry party loyalists. The PTI government’s admitted failure to keep the inflation in check coupled with the sugar and flour crises could theoretically be exploited by the opposition parties.
The “Vote ko izat do” slogan could gain more popularity. As a strategic move, PDM may instigate riots in order to exert more pressure on the establishment. It will dedicate all its resources and political capital to ensure that its long march attracts a large number of crowds, with its final destination being D-Chock, Islamabad. And if the PTI government blunders into ordering the police force or other security agencies at its disposal to adopt confrontational and aggressive tactics to curtail PDM activists, as a consequence of which a precious life is lost, then the situation could become perilous.
This will not be a good position for PTI to be in, nor will the country benefit from such political uncertainty. Pakistan’s struggling economy, which is already on life support, might not be able to sustain or accommodate such a political cataclysm. Not to mention that our ongoing fight against Covid-19 will suffer greatly, causing our health sector to capitulate under pressure. The democratic powers must not forget that the “doctrine of necessity”, from which almost all the parties have benefited, is hanging over their heads like a sword. It is up to them to ensure that democracy prevails and if they fail in doing so, they will not be worthy of forgiveness.
Considering that better sense prevails and the opposition members are allowed to tender their resignations, without any external intervention whatsoever, PTI would be in a much better position. As per Article 58 of our Constitution, the President can dissolve the Parliament if so “advised by the Prime Minister” or where a no-confidence vote has been passed against the Prime Minister and “no other member of the National Assembly commands the confidence of the majority of the member of the National Assembly…”. If PTI plays its cards right and does not allow PDM to mount unsustainable pressure, there exists no reason which would compel Prime Minister Imran Khan to issue such advice to the president. Moreover, if all PDM members do resign from their seats, such a situation will not, rather, does not, give rise to a constitutional crisis.
As per Article 55 of our Constitution, the National Assembly shall only become defunct if during the sitting of the Assembly it is brought to the attention of the person presiding that less than “one-fourth” of the total members are in attendance. At present there are 332 seats in the National Assembly, which means if 83 members are present, the National Assembly will function as normal. Legally speaking, assuming that all members of PDM resign, along with, for argument’s sake, 30% or 40% of PTI members, it still would not have any effect on the legal standing of the prime minister or the PTI government. Moreover, for the sake of better understanding PTI’s legal position, if it is assumed that only 50 members of PTI are left in the National Assembly, whereas all other members of the National Assembly have resigned, it still would not matter as long as none of the remaining 50 members bring the quorum issue to the attention of the person presiding over the session.
In light of the above, a conclusion can be derived that PDM will not benefit a great deal from tendering resignations and, perhaps, has attached undue weightage to this strategy. At most, there will be some political consequences and questions may be raised with reference to the PTI government’s legitimacy to rule over the people of Pakistan. At best, if PDM follows through with the resignation strategy, the alliance of the parties under the banner of PDM would be strengthened and they will have no other option but to work together and for a common goal which in turn will make PDM more determined to send off the current government. On the contrary, PTI could potentially stall the resignation process as was done by the former Speaker, Mr Ayaz Sadiq, by requiring all the members to attend the Speaker’s office in order to verify their resignations. It seems that PTI is trying to test the waters and believes that PDM will not resign. If it does, they may be able to buy time and selectively accommodate and neutralise the threat.
In the end, no matter what route the opposition or the government takes, they will need to sit together and address their differences. Problems can only be solved through a consultative process which, unfortunately, no party is willing to pursue at this stage. The political vacuum continues to grow, allowing non-democratic forces to further strengthen their grip over the system. The only issue that all our political parties are concerned with is free and fair elections, which by no means is any less important than other issues. However, the said issue, like all other issues, can only be resolved through political will and with the purest of intentions, something which has been lacking among our political elite for decades.
from Sports News & Discussions and Performances | The Express Tribune https://ift.tt/372ZDyz
Thursday, December 3, 2020
How Kaavan attained freedom after 35 years
Kaavan, now probably the most famous elephant in the world, has safely reached his new retirement home, the Cambodia Wildlife Sanctuary. There are pictures of him walking around his new home at dusk. He must be disoriented after the seven hour flight but animals adapt quickly to their surroundings. After his quarantine, he will gradually be introduced to the three female Asian elephants already at the sanctuary.
For the local and international activists who have been demanding his freedom for years, this must be an extremely emotional time. For the Government of Pakistan, especially the Ministry of Climate Change who facilitated his departure (with the military helping with the logistics), it is a relief that he has reached safely. After 35 years in Islamabad Zoo, where he was treated abysmally, the current leadership feels that he deserves to enjoy his retirement years and live in peace in the company of other elephants.
There is no doubt that the singer Cher played a vital role in his freedom with all her tweets and campaigning since 2015. Kaavan was very lucky indeed to have drawn the attention of one the world’s biggest pop divas. Let’s not forget that there are over 600 zoos in the world and 194 of these have elephants; around 50 have solitary elephants. These are facts given to me by forester Syed Rizwan Mehboob who says he is hurt by the negative publicity which Pakistan is getting as news items like “Loneliest Elephant released from Pakistan” are flashed across the globe. I personally think zoos are a dated concept given that we are in the midst of a global, manmade 6th mass extinction of plants and animals.
At any rate, Islamabad Zoo was ordered to be shut down by the Islamabad High Court back in May 21, 2020 and the animals be shifted to “sanctuaries” within the next 60 days. The problem was that there are no proper animal sanctuaries in Pakistan as such. During the shifting two lions died which created an outcry. The Islamabad Zoo is now closed to the public and the Islamabad Wildlife Management Board (IWMB) is considering future options for it that will be in keeping with the best international practices.
The government decided to sign all the necessary permissions and send Kaavan to an elephant sanctuary in Cambodia as Pakistan does not have one. It would take a couple of years to build an elephant sanctuary and to train the staff. Kaavan was our sole Asian elephant; the other 4 elephants in zoos across Pakistan are from Africa. Kaavan couldn’t be kept in the company of African elephants. Elephants are social animals but one can’t put Asian and African elephants together. Kaavan’s mate Saheli (another Asian elephant from Sri Lanka) died in 2012 and he had been alone since then.
It was Cher’s Free the Wild foundation that sent the Four Paws International team headed by the very competent Dr Amir Khalil to Islamabad back in August this year (in the midst of a pandemic) to look after the elephant and plan for his relocation to Cambodia. Dr Amir won over Kaavan with his love and patient care, not to mention his singing and helped him to lose weight to ready him for his departure.
Finally the big day arrived on the 29th of December. But to everyone’s surprise, two days before Kaavan’s departure date, Cher herself arrived in Islamabad. No one was sure she would actually travel here during the second wave of the coronavirus. Cher arrived quietly and stayed at a local 5 star hotel. She wanted to meet PM Imran Khan to thank him personally for the release of the elephant and this was arranged by the Special Assistant to the PM on Climate Change, Malik Amin Aslam.
The IWMB then facilitated Cher’s visit to the Islamabad Zoo the day before Kaavan’s departure where she met Kaavan in person for the first time and sang to him. Dr Amer introduced the elephant to her and she shed tears while hearing his story and feeding him. She later thanked the IWMB for the facilitation and especially thanked Malik Amin’s wife for her husband’s help in releasing the elephant. She took pictures with us and that broke the ice for the local activists who also wanted pictures with the super star.

Cher singing to Kaavan the day before his departure to Cambodia.
Cher was very sweet, graciously agreeing to take pictures with everyone who mustered up the courage to approach her, although her security had earlier warned people that no cameras would be allowed in her presence. You see Cher was making her own documentary on Kaavan’s journey with the Smithsonian channel that will be released in 2021 and there were copyright issues. She was clearly thrilled to have met Kaavan and really seemed to have a deep connection with him. She stayed late at the zoo, filming interviews and meeting with the local activists. All this was done in peace as the zoo had been shut down for the local media.

Cher takes a picture with Amna Amin and me after her tour of the Islamabad Zoo.
The next day, the date of Kaavan’s departure, the media had to be allowed in and despite being invited to speak at a joint press conference by both the Ministry of Climate Change and the Four Paws team, Cher decided not to join in. In fact, she gave no interviews to the media throughout her trip and other than shooting her own documentary she kept to herself. Such is the life of a super star who has to be careful about her image and security! She was very happy about being able to shoot her documentary, however, and her team conveyed their gratitude. She left the next day in order to be able to reach Cambodia in time to welcome Kaavan.
The day of Kaavan’s departure was a tense day. The media, both local and international, was clamoring for pictures and information and had to be given access to the zoo even though Kaavan needed to be carefully prepped for the long journey. At the last minute his cargo plane had to land at the international airport instead of Nur Khan air base. The plane had to make a mandatory stop in New Delhi on its way to Cambodia as permission for a fly over was not granted in time. Also Kaavan had to be sedated and yet kept active enough to be able to move him into his specially designed container.

Kaavan in his container, ready for his journey to Cambodia.

Kaavan inside the container, leaving Islamabad Zoo and heading to the airport.
German expert Frank Gortz, who came from Austria for the translocation of Kaavan, was the elephant expert who helped Dr Amir along with the Four Paws team. The staff of the IWMB also helped along with local activists. It took a team effort to finally pull the five and a half tons Kaavan into his container with ropes and have the container lifted by a crane onto a trawler. The media refused to budge from the zoo as they needed to cover the story. Finally at 9pm the trawler, now under the protection of the military, left for Islamabad International Airport with a convoy. At 4.30 am his plane departed for Cambodia.
All’s well that ends well and with Kaavan arriving safely at his sanctuary, Cher’s Free the Wild organisation has formally invited the SAPM Amin Aslam to visit him in Cambodia and see their model for eco-tourism. As for the nearly empty Islamabad Zoo, we are now planning to make it into a new facility and eventually bring back the other animals being kept at various locations in Islamabad. It will be more along the lines of a conservation centre and the focus would be on indigenous species. We are not planning to import any more wild animals into Pakistan.
All photos courtesy of the author.
from Sports News & Discussions and Performances | The Express Tribune https://ift.tt/2Jw9WBY
Uttar Pradesh’s ‘love jihad’ law is a victory for the BJP
India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh passed a law in late November criminalising religious conversions by marriage that aren’t approved by a district magistrate in a move that spits in the face of the country’s secular traditions. Although not stated in the text itself, the move was made in response to what Hindu radicals have alleged is a secret so-called “love jihad” conspiracy by Muslims to massively convert Hindu women to Islam. There’s absolutely no basis whatsoever for alleging anything of the sort, but as the Washington Posted noted in a recent op-ed about how “The hateful love ‘jihad’ conspiracy in India is going mainstream”, these groundless claims are being propagated to further radicalise Indian society.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen India’s transformation from a constitutionally secular state to a de-facto Hindu nationalist one. This development has raised serious concerns among the country’s nearly 200 million Muslims that they’ll soon be doomed to second-class status or worse. Examples adding credence to their claims are last year’s Citizenship (Amendment) Act which officially discriminates against Muslim refugees by prioritising the granting of citizenship to non-Muslim ones from nearby countries. The National Register of Citizens also runs the risk of effectively stripping the citizenship of former Muslim refugees and their descendants who moved to India several decades ago but might have lost their documents over the years.
The “love jihad” fear-mongering campaign is the next step in the Indian government’s Islamophobic crusade. No state that’s constitutionally secular should meddle in interfaith relationships, nor should its representatives encourage radicalised members of their civil society to harass and harm those who participate in such. Religion is obviously a very sensitive subject for many people regardless of their faith, and interfaith relationships can be very controversial in many families, but these are private matters to be dealt with behind closed doors between consenting adults, not public ones where the government or even strangers have the right to interfere. If India was a constitutionally Hindu state then the standard might be different, but it isn’t since it’s officially secular.
Therein lies the primary contradiction since India is essentially behaving as a religious state even though its representatives routinely criticise many majority-Muslim countries like Pakistan whose laws are influenced by religious teachings. That’s a blatant double standard which proves that those attacks against others were never made on a sincerely secular basis. They were just intended to radicalise the domestic masses and virtue signal to India’s new Western allies that it deserves to be seen as their international equal after showing that it shares their suspicions of Islam. By implementing its own religiously influenced legislation, India is trading its secular reputation for a Hindu nationalist one which aims to boost its Islamophobic credentials in the eyes of the West.
What’s especially concerning about all of this is the silence from most members of the international community, especially Western countries. They always make a fuss about “spreading democracy” and protecting “human rights”, yet potentially tens of millions of couples in constitutionally secular India’s Uttar Pradesh no longer have the right to freely choose their spouse without worries that the government will reject their relationship and civil society might even lynch them just for falling in love with the “wrong” person. These same countries that are now silent are usually very outspoken at even the slightest indication that religious minorities in Muslim-majority states might be mistreated, which confirms their ulterior motives all along.
With this in mind, it can therefore be said that India has practically become a Western country. It receives a free pass from its peers for its domestic hypocrisy, and just like them, it also treats Muslims as second-class citizens. If Russia for example were to have imposed similar legislation in its largest region criminalising the conversions of Orthodox Christian women to Islam by marriage without government permission, then it would immediately become the world’s top “human rights” issue and sanctions might even be threatened against Moscow unless it reversed its policy. India, however, can criminalise the conversion of Hindu women to Islam by marriage without government permission in its largest region and know that its Western allies will never condemn it.
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Indian farmers are rising up against Modi’s ‘Great Reset’
The Indian capital saw heated clashes on Friday after security forces fired tear gas and water cannons to stop a farmers’ march that was descending on the city from different parts of the country, most from the agriculturally rich region of Punjab. The farmers are furious after the government’s so-called “reforms” in September liberalised the market for their goods, which they fear will eventually lead to the state removing its subsidies for their industry and thus placing them at the mercy of uncontrollable market forces that seek to exploit them. While the authorities claim that they have the farmers’ best interests in mind, it’ll be argued in this analysis that they don’t, and that they actually aim to destroy them for self-interested political and economic reasons.
The full-spectrum paradigm-changing processes catalysed by the world’s uncoordinated efforts to contain Covid-19, which the author collectively refers to as World War C, has created an opportunity for some forces to push through radical pre-planned agendas that were just waiting for the proper pretext. The World Economic Forum (WEF) nowadays openly talks about a so-called “Great Reset”, which is proudly pushed by its founder Klaus Schwab who literally published a book over the summer titled “Covid-19: The Great Reset”. It’s not a “conspiracy theory” like critics claim, but is simply a strategy for capitalising on the prevailing chaotic conditions of the contemporary world to advance prior plans that might not have been popular under other conditions.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also has his own “Great Reset” that he hopes to impose upon the population, and it too precedes the onset of World War C. His radical vision aims to rapidly neoliberalise the economy, which would be akin to what Russia suffered immediately after the end of communism during its period of “shock therapy”. Subsidies would be dramatically scaled down and ultimately removed in order to let the so-called “invisible hand of the market” guide the country’s development. The effect that this would have on the Indian agricultural sector would be disastrous since it would crush this segment of society and lead to its eventual replacement by large-scale corporate agricultural forces, some of which might even be foreign-owned.
The ruling BJP fears the influence that farmers hold over society, hence their interest in politically neutralising them by practically removing this class from existence through these means. It knows very well that they have the power to bring the government to its knees and to possibly form the core of a nationwide protest movement sometime in the future. Domestic conditions are very tense in India nowadays after a growing segment of the population is becoming increasingly unhappy with the government’s response to World War C. The farmers’ protest might be the spark that incites wider unrest if it isn’t contained as soon as possible, which explains why the authorities are resorting to the use of force to stop their march on the capital.
This isn’t a new observation either since the author has been covering Indian social movements for the past few years and arrived at similar conclusions in the past. The reader is encouraged to review what he wrote in September 2018 about how “India’s Arrest Of Leftist Activists Shows Its Fear Of Social Revolution” and his follow-up piece from July 2019 predicting that “India’s Looming Agricultural Crisis Is A Unique Chance To Change The System”. Modi’s promised “big bang reforms” form the basis of this year’s neoliberal-driven “Great Reset”. They’re actually one and the same, but he wisely calculated that the agricultural dimension of this vision would provoke widespread unrest from farmers unless he pushed it through during crisis conditions.
World War C was the perfect pretext for doing so, but the farmers weren’t going to be fooled and thus decided to make a powerful stand in opposition to the policy that aims to spell their professional doom. As the author wrote in his previously cited analysis about changing the system, the large-scale unemployment of farmers that would follow Modi’s “big bang” (nowadays more accurately described as his “Great Reset”) and their resultant mass migration to the cities out of desperation to sell their labour to feed their families would totally change Indian society, but not for the better. The farmers therefore know what’s in store for them if they fail in their efforts to get the government to reverse this policy, which is why they’re rising up against the “Great Reset”.
It’s too early to tell whether they’ll succeed in this goal or if they’ll inspire others to join them in assembling what the author also earlier described in his cited works as a “coalition of malcontents”, but considering the fact that many of the farmer are from Punjab, then the central government’s crackdown against them in parallel with its plans to ruin their profession through Modi’s “big bang” (“Great Reset”) could lead to more of them supporting the Khalistani cause. The Indian government is thus goring itself on the horns of a dilemma entirely of its own making by either standing back and risking the scenario that furious farmers form the core of a “coalition of malcontents” or cracking down on them more harshly and thus pushing them towards Khalistan.
from Sports News & Discussions and Performances | The Express Tribune https://ift.tt/3lcqX1a
How to reform Pakistan’s agriculture sector
Agriculture policymaking in Pakistan has been in disarray for decades. Progress is static, contradictions constant and reform evasive. Hence, it does not come as a surprise that the sector has failed to keep pace with demand growth and the country has continued to trail its peers in yields per hectare.
The limelight has been afforded to these challenges due to the unflattering macroeconomic implications, and grim repercussions elsewhere, but the ensuing discourse has broadly focused on cause-and-effect iterations. Covid-19 and locust attacks have been designated, resultantly, as the roots of the problem. Conferring blame on nature suits policymakers, of course, as it systematically absolves them, at least partially, from political culpability.
It should be obvious to any keen observer, however, that deficient crop yields instigating an upsurge in food inflation is not a product of rare circumstantial debacles but rather an inevitable detonation of a tinderbox. For instance, the surge in wheat prices is directly attributable to the demand-supply gulf that has developed on the back of steadily growing demand and static supply. In 2011, Pakistan produced 25.214 million tonnes of wheat which has remained virtually unchanged at 24.946 million tonnes in 2020. With the country having been compelled to import 3 million tonnes of wheat, this could only, theoretically, entail demand surpassing domestic supply and therefore necessitating import.
Of course, statistical inaccuracies in estimations are the talk of the town. But if the production has not budged in the last decade, and demand can be reasonably assumed to have increased steadily with the population, why does it come as a surprise that the country’s indigenous yield is not adequate to satisfy consumption requirements?
With Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) acting as the cornerstone of the state’s food security strategy for the better part of the last decade, the emergence of a demand-supply disparity was all but preordained. The fact that the MSP has done nothing to augment the crop yield is hard to ignore given both the cultivated area and total production remaining virtually stagnant over the last decade. Moreover, its redistributive utility in buttressing farmers’ incomes is at best ineffective and futile.
What the regulators need to understand is that in order to ensure sustainable growth in agriculture, they need to lend support directly to farmers in enhancing productivity. Price floors are nothing short of counterproductive market distortions which have only accrued benefits to eminent landowners who usually end up capitalising on their political clout in securing floor prices for their produce, and commercial banks, that are allowed to expand their top-lines by financing procurement schemes. It becomes urgent, then, especially in the backdrop of widening demand-supply deficit, to prioritise growth in productivity by deploying policies which entail direct benefit to farmers in reducing costs of farm inputs and enhancing productive efficiency.
The government’s announcement of a direct fertiliser subsidy in May indicated the realignment of regulatory direction, a commendable evolution in a sector marred by regressive policymaking. The idea was reinforced when the government decided to restrict subsidies to only phosphate and potassium fertilisers, which have historically exhibited price elasticity and require greater attention to improve the NPK ratio in application. Such decision-making seemed to foreshadow a paradigm shift in agriculture policymaking, an essential switch in context as it seemed to portend a more deliberate and targeted formulation of agriculture policy.
The subsequently unfolding chaos, however, seems to have unnerved incumbents both politically and administratively. The dilly-dallying in decision-making on the obvious shortfall in key staples exacerbated the situation, triggering a surge in inflation, as the government scrambled to instate short term fixes. The approval of a substantial hike in MSPs, then, seems to be a knee-jerk reflex that successive governments have embraced all too often over the last decade. The counter-intuitive essence of it seems to be lost on an administration hustling for political currency.
But the political landscape does not change the fundamentals, neither does it allow the incumbents to prioritise its popular image over the agriculture sector’s outlook. The policymakers need to reconsider the grave ramifications of their decisions: an 18% hike in the MSP has to be financed. With contracting fiscal space and International Monetary Fund (IMF) restrictions, it would most likely translate into retail prices, fuelling inflation; the last thing on the government’s wish list. Moreover, it’s unlikely to increase wheat cultivation, a scenario that policymakers hope for with the timing of the decision, which has remained essentially consistent over the last decade despite multiple increments in the MSP.
And if the economic baggage of a futile market intervention wasn’t enough, the Sindh government seems well on its way to escalating the anomaly. By fixing the provincial MSP at PKR2000/40kg, it has all but sanctioned double-digit inflation in the next marketing year. Again, for political optics or other reasons, policymakers seem to have disregarded the price inelasticity of wheat supply.
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